Israel was able to repel the “unprecedented” Iranian attack, thanks to the advanced Israeli air defense system and crucial aid provided by the United States and other Western and Arab partners, but the “anticipated escalation” between the two sides may carry “dangerous repercussions,” according to a report by the newspaper “Israel.”Wall Street Journal“.
American, British and Jordanian warplanes played a particularly important role in shooting down the Iranian marches, and the missiles launched by Iran towards Israel were shot down before they reached Israeli airspace.
The United States, with the support of European destroyers, was able to destroy “more than 80” drones and “at least six ballistic missiles intended to strike Israel from Iran and Yemen,” according to what the US Central Command (Centcom) announced on Sunday.
American preparations
Before the Iranian attack, US officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, remained in “continuous contact” with Israel and other countries in the region.
General Eric Corella, Commander of the Central Command responsible for the Middle East, visited the region and provided real-time information, stressing coordination with Israel and other regional partners.
An American official told Agence France-Presse that the United States was also in contact with Iran through “a series of direct communications transmitted through Switzerland,” which has been managing American interests in the Islamic Republic since the severing of relations between Tehran and Washington more than 40 years ago.
Additional forces were also deployed to the region “to enhance regional deterrence and protect US forces,” according to the US Department of Defense.
Details of the “unprecedented attack”
On Saturday night, Iran launched “more than 300 drones and cruise missiles” towards Israel, wounding 12 people, according to what the Israeli army announced.
In the attack, about 100 “medium-range ballistic missiles,” more than 30 “cruise missiles,” and at least 150 “attack marches” targeted Israel from Iran, according to what Agence France-Presse quoted an American military official as saying.
The Israeli army, for its part, counted more than 350 projectiles and said that 99 percent of them were destroyed.
The US forces “successfully dealt with and destroyed more than 80 attack drones and six ballistic missiles that were targeting Israel (after they were launched from Iran and Yemen),” according to what the US Central Command confirmed via the “X” platform, on Sunday.
Two American ships present in the region, the USS Arleigh Burke and the USS Carney, destroyed six missiles, before aircraft intervened and in turn destroyed more than 70 Iranian marches.
A Patriot missile battery shot down a cruise missile not far from the Iraqi city of Erbil in Kurdistan.
US forces also destroyed “a ballistic missile on the launch vehicle, and seven drones were destroyed on the ground before they were launched into areas in Yemen controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis,” according to Centcom.
“Between two narratives”.. What is the military assessment of the Iranian response to Israel?
Between talking about a “strong slap” and emphasizing the “failure of the attack,” the Iranian and Israeli narratives differed about the “military consequences” of the night strike launched by Iran on Israel. What is the truth from a “military perspective”?
Damascus attack
The Iranian attack, “the first of its kind,” came in response to an air strike “attributed to Israel,” which resulted in the destruction of the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and the killing of seven members of the Revolutionary Guard, including two senior officers, on April 1.
Senior American officials were briefed on the Damascus attack during a visit to the White House by the Israeli ambassador and military attaché, a US administration official said, adding, “We did not participate in this strike, but we knew that it would have consequences.”
Khamenei threatens Israel again.. What are Iran’s tools and what is the Israeli response?
Once again, Iran vowed to respond to an air strike “attributed to Israel,” which resulted in the destruction of the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and the killing of seven members of the Revolutionary Guard, including two senior officers. What are Tehran’s tools to achieve this? And what will be the Israeli response to any Iranian move? Direct or indirect?
In the following days, US President Joe Biden asked the government to “defend Israel as much as possible” and ensure that the means to do so are published, according to a directive from Washington.
Consequences of escalation?
Since the beginning of the war in Gaza following the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, the stated goal of the United States has been to avoid spillover of the conflict into the region, and Washington has sought to reduce tensions.
When asked about possible Israeli responses to the attack launched by Iran last weekend, an American official said, “We will not participate in any possible action on their part, and we do not see ourselves involved in it.”
The official added that Israel “was clear with us that it does not want escalation with Iran.”
He continued, “The big question is not only whether Israel intends to act, but also what it will choose to do.”
On Sunday, Western officials said that they “believe that Israel’s response may come quickly, perhaps as early as Monday,” the Wall Street Journal reported.
Limited or expanded?.. Scenarios for a “new” Iranian-Israeli confrontation
“Is the matter over or not?” is a question that sparked a state of controversy in the wake of the “unprecedented” Iranian attack on Israel, which was followed by an “Israeli vow to respond” in exchange for Iran considering “the matter over.” This is what the experts who spoke to the website answer. “Free”
Responding forcefully on Iranian soil could lead to more devastating retaliations, but not responding at all, or very weakly, could also erode deterrence, making Israel and others more vulnerable to future Iranian attacks, said Nadav Pollack, an analyst. A former Israeli government student who teaches at Reichman University.
He added: “Iran has begun a new phase. It has stopped hiding behind proxies and is now exposed to a direct attack from Israel.”
The Iranian-backed groups constitute the so-called “Axis of resistance“, an alliance of armed militias that includes the Jihad and Hamas movements in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and several armed groups in Iraq and Syria. It serves as an Iranian front line of defense, and Tehran uses it to spread its influence throughout the region.
Through these militias, Iran has succeeded in competing with traditional regional powers in the region, as it supports “directly or indirectly” more than 20 armed groups, most of which are classified as “terrorist” by the United States.
A small part of a “large arsenal”
Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the region, according to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Saturday’s attack consumed only a small portion of the power of Tehran’s arsenal, according to the Wall Street Journal.
After the attack on Israel.. What are Iran’s “missile” capabilities?
On Saturday, Iran launched a dense swarm of 200 deadly drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles towards Israel, the “vast majority” of which were intercepted but “minor damage” was caused to an Israeli military base, according to what the Israeli army announced.
Last week, the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency published a diagram of nine Iranian missiles that it said were capable of reaching Israel.
Among these missiles are “Sejil,” which can travel more than 17,000 kilometers per hour and with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, “Khaybar,” which has a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, and “Haj Qasim,” which has a range of 1,400 kilometers and bears the name of the commander of the Quds Force. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in an American drone strike in Baghdad four years ago.
Last June, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that Iran unveiled what officials described as its first hypersonic ballistic missile.
Hypersonic missiles can travel at speeds at least five times the speed of sound and on complex trajectories, making them difficult to intercept.
Last August, Iran, a major producer of drones, said it had manufactured an advanced, home-made drone called Mohajer-10, with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, capable of flying for up to 24 hours and carrying up to 300 kilograms.
Although only a small number of Iranian missiles were able to enter Israeli territory on Saturday, the Iranian army derived valuable intelligence information from monitoring how Israeli and American air defenses work, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“Iran was testing the missile defense system, the resolve of countries in the region, and the resolve of the United States,” said Jonathan Schanzer, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.
What about the Israeli response?
Israel has one of the largest armies in the world, especially in terms of military equipment, and relies on “the magnitude of its military power” in order to maintain its influence in the region, benefiting from the support of the United States “financially and militarily.”
Israel is ranked 14th among the most powerful armies on earth, while Iran is ranked 17th in the world, according to the “Website” website.Global Firepower“.
When Israel considers its response, it must also “weigh the interests of its Arab partners,” such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, notes the Wall Street Journal.
Despite public anger over the killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians during the war in Gaza, Jordan and other partners helped Israel confront Iranian missiles and marches on Saturday.
“Our regional partners have intensified their efforts despite the very high tension between them and Israel for six months, and between them and the United States,” said Stephen Cook, a Middle East analyst at the Washington Institute for Middle East Research.
No matter how much the countries of the region hate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they “hate the Iranian government more,” according to Cook.
These Arab partners, along with the United States and others, are likely to play a vital role in “providing intelligence, opening their airspace, and, in Jordan’s case, shooting down Iranian weapons.”
American officials told the Wall Street Journal that half of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran either failed to launch or fell from the sky before reaching their targets.
Iran’s failure to harm Israel as a result of Israel’s superior air defenses “revealed Tehran’s weakness when it comes to the conventional military threat.”
This is why “Iran invests so much in terrorist groups and armed forces.”
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said that these various groups have “a great ability to instill fear and cause a great deal of risk to the region.”
The nuclear option?
Ali Fayez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, warned that the apparent weakness in Iran’s conventional military capacity may carry escalatory risks.
Since neither proxy attacks by Hezbollah or Hamas nor direct bombings on Israel succeed, decision-makers in Tehran may increasingly lean toward the “nuclear option,” according to Fayez.
If “ballistic missiles and drones” are not enough, Iran will likely conclude that “the only outlet left for them is final deterrence.”
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