A step that some see as “expected” and others describe as “surprising.” A state of controversy accompanied Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dismissal of his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, in the midst of the war in Ukraine. What were the reasons for the dismissal? And what was the secret of its timing?
On Sunday evening, Putin dismissed his Defense Minister Shoigu, who had held the position since 2012, in a major change of military leadership a few days after his inauguration for a fifth presidential term and more than two years after the war in Ukraine.
An unexpected move?
Shoigu (68 years old) has held the position of Minister of Defense in Russia since 2012, and embodied the stability of the various governments under Putin, just like Sergei Lavrov, who maintains his position as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Despite a series of military setbacks suffered by Russia, including the failure to control the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and the withdrawal from the regions northeast of Kharkiv and southern Kherson, Putin has maintained his confidence in Shoigu so far.
This included a mutiny by the leader of the Wagner armed group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, last year to demand Shoigu’s dismissal.
However, despite this, the expert specializing in Russian affairs, Nabil Rashwan, confirms that “dismissal is expected,” after accusations against the Deputy Minister of Defense, Timur Ivanov, in “corruption” cases.
Ivanov was arrested after he was suspected of committing a crime based on Paragraph 6 of Article 290 of the Penal Code, i.e. accepting a bribe.
The Minister of Defense was unable to achieve “major military achievements” during the war in Ukraine, and his forces suffered “high human losses” despite the “huge volume of military spending,” according to Rashwan’s interview with Al-Hurra website.
Regarding the appointment of Shoigu as the new Secretary-General of the National Security Council, Rashwan says that the Russian president “gives the person an opportunity to gradually retreat from what he was.”
This change gives Shoigu a position that is theoretically higher than his role in the Ministry of Defense, “which ensures his continuity and saves his face,” explains the expert on Russian affairs.
From Moscow, Russian political analyst, Roland Begamov, speaks of an “expected change” in light of government reshuffles, but it is “not a dismissal” due to Shoigu’s move to a higher position.
The matter has nothing to do with major military losses in Ukraine, nor with suspicions of corruption affecting Shoygu, but they are “expected amendments,” and “a suitable location for the work of the former Minister of Defense” was chosen with the aim of developing military industries, according to what he told the Al-Hurra website.
In a related context, Russian political analyst, Timur Doydar, points out that “Shoigu is a person close to Putin, but he now holds a position that has “no influence on political or economic life.”
Regarding the corruption accusations against the Deputy Minister of Defense, nothing “affects Shoigu” and he has not been accused by the Public Prosecutor’s Office, according to what the Russian political analyst told the Al-Hurra website.
Indeed, the Deputy Minister of Defense was arrested and is accused of a corruption case and, it is said, “other cases related to national security,” but the accusations did not affect Shoygu himself, Dowidar adds.
He believes that what happened is “a move aimed at increasing the efficiency of the military system at the present time and in the future.”
Why was an “economist” chosen as Minister of Defense?
Putin proposed the economist, Andrei Belousov, to replace Shoigu, according to the list of ministerial nominations published by the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament.
Belousov, 65, has no military background. He has been the first deputy prime minister of the last government since 2020 and one of Putin’s main economic advisors in recent years. He briefly served as Minister of Economic Development between May 2012 and June 2013.
Dowidar explains that the new Minister of Defense is specialized in “crisis management and is capable of dealing with the economic sanctions imposed on Russia.”
Belousov was summoned to manage financial resources and organize the military economy, and he is a “trustworthy” person for Putin, according to the Russian political analyst.
In a related context, Begamov confirms that the new minister has “considerable political and economic” experience and is “balanced and accurate.”
This is what Putin currently needs to occupy the position of Defense Minister, in light of the increase in military spending, which reaches 6.8 percent of Russia’s budget, according to the Russian political analyst.
In the Soviet era, the proportion of military spending was similar to what it is today, which caused an economic collapse, and it was “the straw that broke the camel’s back,” and therefore the Soviet Union collapsed, according to Begamov.
The Russian political analyst explains that the main role assigned to the new Minister of Defense relates to “rationalizing spending and controlling military expenditures” so as not to cause “major economic damage.”
For his part, Rashwan sees the selection of an economist as the new Minister of Defense as an indication that Russia wants to improve the financial management of the huge military-industrial complex on which it spends generously.
Russia’s military spending “dramatically drains the country’s economy,” and solving this dilemma requires “integrating the military economy with the country’s economy,” and therefore Belousov, who has great economic experience, was appointed, according to Rashwan.
The change, which surprised some elites in Russia, indicates that Putin is redoubling his efforts in the Ukrainian war and wants to harness more of the capabilities of the Russian economy for the war after the West sought to flood the economy with sanctions.
What is the impact on the war in Ukraine?
Shoigu’s dismissal is one of Putin’s most significant changes to the military leadership since sending troops to Ukraine in February 2022 in what he called a special military operation.
The “big adjustment” comes as Russian forces advance on the battlefield for the first time in months. Will this have an impact on the course of the war?
Rashwan rules out that Shoigu’s dismissal will affect the course of the war in Ukraine because “the Chief of Staff is the one who actually undertakes military action directly.”
The current Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov, continues in his position, and therefore the occurrence of “fundamental changes” on the fronts or in military tactics is “unexpected,” according to the expert on Russian affairs.
Bigamov agrees with him, pointing out that Shoigu was not responsible for “the military component of the Russian army.”
The former Defense Minister is “a civilian who did not serve in the army for a single day,” and therefore there will be no changes at the level of military operations in Ukraine, according to Begamov.
For his part, Dowidar indicates that the General Staff will continue to carry out its military tasks in Ukraine, but perhaps without seeking the assistance of “the Minister of Defense regarding the military aspect of planning and implementing operations.”