As the Left advances in France and Britain, will attitudes towards the Gaza war change?

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Throughout the months of war in the Gaza Strip, demonstrations were taking place in the streets of Britain and France in large numbers in support of the Palestinians, before the two countries held legislative elections that resulted in the arrival of the left, which is considered more supportive of the Palestinians, which raised questions about what the two countries’ policies would be towards the most complex conflict in the Middle East.

In Britain, new Foreign Secretary David Lammy said his country wanted to take a “balanced stance” on the war in Gaza, adding that it would use its diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in the Strip.

Coinciding with these statements, a report by the British newspaper The Guardian revealed that the new government formed by the Labour Party will take a position contrary to its predecessor from the Conservative Party regarding a memorandum submitted to the International Criminal Court, regarding the possibility of the latter issuing an arrest warrant against Israeli leaders.

Analysts who spoke to Alhurra considered this step to represent “even a slight change” in the directions adopted by the current government, unlike its predecessor.

In France, the situation was more dramatic. After the far right, led by Marine Le Pen, advanced in the first round of the early elections called by President Emmanuel Macron, the left-wing coalition reversed the result in the second round and won the majority.

However, Macron rejected the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Monday, asking him to stay and manage current affairs, the day after the legislative elections in which the left-wing coalition won, without achieving an absolute majority.

However, there are disagreements on several points in the left-wing alliance that was hastily established after Macron dissolved the National Assembly, between the radical left of France Insoumise and the Socialists, Communists and Greens, according to Agence France-Presse.

But the most prominent statement on the Palestinian issue was from Mathilde Panot, head of the parliamentary bloc of the “France Insoumise” party, who indicated that “a Palestinian state will be recognized within two weeks”, if the party takes over the new government.

But analysts believe that “it is difficult”, given that he did not win a majority and in light of fears about the leader of the far-left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is described as “a charismatic provocateur, but some even within his own camp are repelled by him,” according to Agence France-Presse.

Attempts are already underway to reach a consensus candidate, so that President Macron can nominate him to lead the government.

Change in workers’ attitude

London-based political analyst Omar Ismail said, “There are strategic constants in Britain and its institutions that do not change with the positions of the parties, but the difference lies in the way these files are dealt with.”

“At the beginning of the Gaza battles, the Labor Party took a hardline stance toward Hamas, and was absolutely supportive of Israel, affirming that it had the right to defend itself. However, with pressure from party cadres, social institutions, and activists opposed to the Gaza war, things changed, especially after the party lost seats in the local elections last May,” he added in an interview with Alhurra.

Ismail continued: “The Labor Party has changed its position somewhat, and the Foreign Minister said that it is possible to recognize the State of Palestine, but on condition that the hostages in Gaza are released, the security situation calms down, and Hamas’s attacks on Israeli territory stop, so that there is a period of calm to open the door to proposals to revive the two-state solution.”

The newspaper wasGuardianThe British newspaper reported on Friday that prominent figures in the Labor Party revealed that the party’s position on the Gaza war cost it seats in the last elections, after it unexpectedly lost 4 MPs to independents who support the Palestinians.

Archive photo of a demonstration in Britain in support of the Palestinians

John McTernan, former advisor to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, warned against this message that the Labour Party base conveyed to its leaders.

“When Labour loses part of its base, whether it’s middle-class voters, urban voters or Muslim voters, it needs a strategy,” he told the BBC on Friday. “You have to look at your losses and study them to regain your base.”

Indeed, the Guardian reported that the government led by Keir Starmer is expected to abandon a previous move by Rishi Sunak’s government, which sought to challenge the authority of the International Court to issue arrest warrants against Israeli citizens, in an attempt to postpone any attempt to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip.

For his part, Ayman Al-Raqab, a professor of political science at Al-Quds University, saw that “what happened in Britain after 14 years of the absence of the Labor Party is a soft coup against the ruling regime led by Sunak.”

He continued to Alhurra website: “Although the matter may not make a big difference, it is a victory for Gaza’s sacrifice. So far, the new prime minister has not given a (clear) position, but at the very least the government has changed the approach of its predecessor in its decision regarding the International Criminal Court.”

“Slow change… but change,” he explained.

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation revealed in a report on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “decided not to stop in Europe” during his upcoming trip to the United States this month, for fear of being arrested if an arrest warrant is issued against him by the International Criminal Court.

Do Palestinians benefit?

Ismail said that if the Guardian report is true, it is “in line with Lammy’s statements during his time as shadow foreign secretary, when he said that if an arrest warrant was issued for Netanyahu, he would be arrested if he arrived in Britain.”

But he added in his interview with Alhurra website: “The Labor Party took power a few days ago, and there is evidence that it is serious about working even in internal and international files, and there is movement and sincerity in the work, and we will see whether this will be reflected in the Gaza file.”

He added: “Many party members are still dissatisfied with what is happening in Gaza, and they want the party to take a clear position.”

The war broke out in the Gaza Strip, following an unprecedented attack by Hamas (classified as a terrorist organization in the United States and other countries) on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people, most of them civilians, including women and children, according to the Israeli authorities.

In response to the attack, Israel vowed to “eliminate Hamas” and has since been carrying out a bombing campaign followed by ground operations since October 27, killing more than 38,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, according to the health authorities in the Strip.

US President Joe Biden is seeking to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and release the hostages held by Hamas, coinciding with the approach of the US elections in which his potential competitor will be former President Donald Trump.

“America is the locomotive of world politics, especially in the Middle East, and we will not see anything before the November elections,” said the London-based political analyst, referring to the US presidential elections.

Al-Raqab continued his talk to Al-Hurra, saying, “The most obvious thing is what happened in France. After the right, led by Le Pen, came close in the first stage, the left, which supports the Palestinian cause, was able to win the elections.”

But this French left has not yet formed a government, despite winning a parliamentary majority, amid ongoing deliberations to choose a candidate for prime minister to be announced by Macron.

Paris-based journalist Ahmed Abdeen told Alhurra: “The France Insoumise party, which won the majority, supports the Palestinians, which is why pessimistic statements came out of Israel after the election results.”

The French President considered the statements of the Israeli Diaspora Minister, Amichai Chikli, about the general elections in France, as “interference in the internal affairs” of his country.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz indicated that Macron expressed this during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a phone call made before the elections.

Following this, Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, published a post on his X account, in which he said that his country “does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.”

But despite this, Chikli continued his statements about the French elections even after Le Pen lost in the second round of the elections to the far left.

An Israeli official involved in the contacts between the two countries described Chikli’s behavior as a “diplomatic bombshell,” and a number of other diplomats told Haaretz that the minister “damaged French-Israeli relations.”

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has submitted his resignation to Macron.

In an interview on Monday with Army Radio, Chikli spoke about his support for French right-wing leader Le Pen, saying that “Macron threw the Jewish community under the bus.”

“The problem now is that the bloc that supports the Palestinians and has promised to recognize their state is not clear whether Macron will task it with forming a government or not, because there is nothing constitutionally obligating him to do so, even though the custom in France is for the president to call on the largest bloc in parliament to form a government,” Abdeen continues.

But he pointed out that in the end, “there is now a louder voice for a bloc supporting the Palestinians in the French parliament, and if they are able to achieve consensus over the next two years, they may have an impact on the presidential elections, and this is the most important thing.”

On Sunday, Clementine Autain, a member of the France Insoumise party, called on the New Popular Front deputies to propose a candidate for prime minister, who should not be former President François Hollande, who was elected as a deputy, nor Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

But party leader Mathilde Panot considered that Mélenchon, 72, “is not excluded at all,” noting that he is “the person who taught the left to win again… by obtaining 22 percent of the votes in the presidential elections” that took place in 2022, according to Agence France-Presse.

Indeed, French political parties have begun deliberations to form a majority and appoint a prime minister.

But there is a problem: none of the blocs is able to obtain an absolute majority of 289 seats on its own. The New Popular Front (left) won 190 seats, the presidential camp about 160 seats, and the National Front and its allies (far right) won more than 140 seats.

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