Mogadishu- Nine years after the emergence of ISIS in Somalia, and Abdul Qadir Mumin – the dissident, pledged allegiance to it Youth Mujahideen MovementAs its leader in 2015, the military influence of ISIS in Somalia returned to the fore again, posing a potential threat to destabilize the security of the region.
This comes in light of local and regional warnings about the possibility of the organization’s members carrying out security attacks, although it does not reach the danger of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab movement and its security threats in the region.
The International Crisis Group sounded the alarm in its report issued last September about the ability of ISIS, the Somali branch, to reconstitute itself after it achieved territorial gains in the mountains of northeastern Somalia in the state. Puntland Locally, which may contribute to its expansion and strengthen its military influence, which may pose a threat to the security of Somalia and its neighbourhood, especially after it achieved military progress against Al-Shabaab fighters.
The organization was able to defeat the influence of the movement’s militants and control the Ali Maskad Mountains, the movement’s stronghold, which faced military pressure in the center of the country after the government military campaign during the past two years.
This military and field development of ISIS in Somalia raises several questions about possible fears that the organization may carry out attacks in Puntland state and areas near its strongholds in the northeast of the state.
What are the reasons for the re-emergence of ISIS to the fore?
Adam Badie, a strategic analyst and head of the Masaf Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that the decline in local and international military operations against ISIS in Somalia was the main factor that enabled the organization to rearrange its ranks in the areas of the Ali Maskad mountain range extending from east to north in Somalia.
Adam explained that the organization’s concentration in rugged mountainous areas helped it benefit from its resources and attract global terrorist groups, in addition to enabling it to carry out camouflage and hiding operations, and establish military training camps, which gave it the ability to carry out attacks against military and urban centers in Puntland state.
The analyst pointed out that the organization’s activity is still limited in Puntland or Somalia in general, but there are indications that it may pose a security threat in the near future due to regional factors, including security unrest – in neighboring countries such as Ethiopia and Yemen – which provide a suitable regional environment for it. In addition to its use of propaganda and attracting foreign fighters, which contributed to its return to the scene again.
What factors contributed to the organization’s military superiority against Al-Shabaab?
The military superiority of ISIS in Somalia was not a surprise, according to many, but rather the result of an 8-year struggle with Al-Shabaab fighters for control of the strategically important Ali Maskad Mountains region.
According to Badie, the tribal factor was one of the most prominent factors that helped the organization to excel, as the clan of its leader, Abdul Qadir Mumin, belongs to the area under its control, which facilitates the recruitment of new fighters experienced in mountain battles, which changed the balance of battle in favor of the “state” in Somalia.
The strategic analyst believes that the decline in Al-Shabaab’s influence, due to government military pressure in the southern regions, prompted it to withdraw its fighters from the mountainous regions of Puntland to strengthen its fronts against government forces.
This withdrawal gave ISIS, according to Badie, the opportunity to move from a position of defense to attack, which enabled it to control the Ali Maskad mountain range after battles in which 50 Al-Shabaab fighters were killed last April.
Attracting ISIS fighters also contributed to… Iraq And the Levant, they arrived in Somalia through smuggling from Yemen, in order to enhance the efficiency of the fighters and develop the organization’s military capabilities, Badie adds.
Will ISIS expand to become a state in the Horn of Africa?
The possibility of ISIS in Somalia turning into a regional, cross-border organization is possible, as it is considered one of the most active branches of the organization, especially in collecting financial revenues, outperforming the Al-Shabaab movement in Puntland state.
This allows him to support himself financially and even generate net revenues that are transferred to the benefit of other groups affiliated with the organization through the “Al-Karrar” financial office, which is responsible for transferring funds from the central organization to the branches, according to the security researcher at the Higher Institute for Security Studies in Somalia, Mohamed Sheikh Ibrahim.
The researcher adds that ISIS’ efforts to transform into a regional organization face several challenges, including competition with the Al-Shabaab movement in the mountainous areas of Puntland, which seeks to stop the organization’s expansion, and the presence of a large number of foreign fighters within ISIS’s ranks, which may alienate the local population and weaken its popular base. International security and military pressure also constitutes an additional factor that limits the organization’s ambitions.
Does ISIS pose a threat to the security of Somalia and neighboring countries?
Retired officer and military analyst Sherif Rabou told Al Jazeera Net that ISIS in Somalia poses a threat to the country’s security by adopting a plan to expand its terrorist attacks in Puntland state and other regions, taking advantage of the high morale of its fighters after achieving field gains in the mountainous regions in the east of the country at the expense of Al-Shabaab. .
He added that the conflict with the Al-Shabaab movement in the Ali Maskad Mountains was the biggest obstacle for the organization to carry out its operations, but it currently aspires to carry out more attacks, compared to last year, which witnessed limited operations by the organization.
Despite international concerns about the seriousness of the organization’s operations, local and federal authorities reduce the possibility that it poses a major threat to the country’s security, given the small number of its fighters and the limited spread of it, according to statements by Hussein Moalim, the National Security Advisor to the Somali President, to the Voice of America’s Somali section.
What is the future of the conflict between Al-Shabaab fighters and ISIS?
Rabo says that the conflict between ISIS Somalia and Al-Shabaab fighters is due to competition for resources, influence, and fighters. Despite the dominance of Al-Shabaab on the jihadi scene in Somalia in terms of fighters, resources, and popular support, the nature of the indirect war adopted by both sides makes the conflict likely to continue for a long time.
He added that the government military pressures facing Al-Shabaab in the south affect their ability to engage in direct confrontations with ISIS in the mountainous areas of Puntland. This situation leads to a convergence of the military balance between the two parties in those areas, which prolongs the conflict.
The retired officer pointed out that the decisive factor in the future of this conflict depends on the extent of continued international military pressure and joint security coordination between the central government and the federal states in ground military operations, which may weaken both sides and provide the opportunity for one of them to pounce on the other.