Maria and her husband, Alexander, remain confident that President Vladimir Putin will secure a fifth term as Russia’s leader in the presidential elections, which enter their third and final day on Sunday.
But the couple, who live in Moscow with their three children, are not sure what will happen next. The most important thing on their minds, according to what they told the New York Times, is the fear that winning a new term will prompt Putin to announce another mobilization of Russian men to fight in Ukraine.
Maria said that her husband, Alexander, 38, left Russia shortly after Putin announced the first mobilization in September 2022 before returning recently, but he is again thinking about leaving the country.
Maria, 34 years old, added in a conversation with the newspaper via WhatsApp: “I only hear about mobilization, and that there is an attack planned for the summer and that the forces need to rotate.”
Fears and uncertainty
Although the Russian authorities deny planning another war mobilization, the feeling of unease remains, as many Russians are concerned about many issues, which are mainly based on the possibility of Putin using his absolute power to make changes that he avoided during the last period preceding the elections.
Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, one of the few independent opinion polling centers in Russia, said that these concerns are “mainly raised by the minority of Russians who oppose the government.”
While potential mobilization remains the primary source of concern, citizens also have concerns about the country’s financial and economic situation, especially regarding the possibility of the authorities allowing the ruble to depreciate, after having supported it during its decline last year, which will increase the cost of imports.
For their part, businessmen raise concerns about raising taxes, while opposition activists expect more crackdowns on the opposition.
“People are very worried,” said Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School University in New York City, who visits Russia regularly, noting that “the state of uncertainty is the worst, even though the Russian people are accustomed to it.”
These fears, according to the newspaper, reflect the current mood in Russia, where many have learned to “hope for the best but expect the worst,” noting that the state of uncertainty that Khrushcheva and other experts spoke about “has worsened,” with them saying that “Russia has become more authoritarian.” “.
“Free and bolder”
The newspaper states that, after more than two decades in power, Putin is no longer “constrained by an opposition party in parliament or a strong civil society,” and therefore he remains “relatively free to act as he pleases.”
Experts told the newspaper that the Kremlin could use the results of the vote – expected to be a landslide victory for Putin – to “further suppress the opposition and escalate the war in Ukraine,” which was intended to be a quick “special military operation,” before it turned into a war that killed thousands. dead.
Yekaterina Shulman, a researcher specializing in Russian political affairs, said, “In authoritarian elections, the results can be predicted, but the consequences are not… If the regime decides that it has done a good job and that everything is fine, then the post-election period could be the right time.” To make unpopular decisions.
Shulman pointed to the example of raising the retirement age in Russia after Putin’s re-election in 2018, although the decision did not meet popular approval.
Elections in Russia are tightly managed by the Kremlin through its almost complete control over the media and government institutions, whose workers are often subjected to pressure to vote. The electoral machine filters out unwanted candidates, and opposition activists have been forced to flee or ended up in Russian prisons.
The country’s most prominent opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, died last month in a prison in the Arctic, where he was serving prison sentences totaling 30 years.
Although the outcome of the vote is not “in doubt,” Russians remain preoccupied with what will result from the first elections since Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
“Not just a win, but a big victory.”
For its part, the newspaper considered “Wall Street JournalAfter 24 years in the Kremlin, the Russian leader is on the cusp of securing another six years as President of Russia, in elections that remain “largely formal” and open the way for him to the second longest term in power since Stalin.
According to the newspaper, Putin’s government did everything in its power to “ensure his victory”, after imprisoning its critics, restricting freedom of the press, and issuing new laws to confront and suppress any criticism of his war in Ukraine.
Analysts told the newspaper that Putin, now 71 years old, not only wants to win, but “needs to achieve a major victory that allows him a free hand in what he says are the conservative Orthodox traditions in Russia, which ultimately includes the war in Ukraine and his broader confrontation with Russia.” the West”.
The European Parliament Research Centre, which provides analysis on EU policy issues, says a major win would “legitimize Putin’s legacy and war of aggression, marginalize remaining opposition, and allow him to implement his vision unchecked over the next six years.”
Turnout in the last presidential election in 2018 was 67.5 percent, with nearly 77 percent of the vote going to Putin, according to government data.
The Kremlin hopes that the numbers will be higher this time so that the Russian leader is given “the freedom to achieve his goals,” by “giving Putin carte blanche after the elections,” as Boris Vishnevsky, deputy head of the opposition party, Yabloko, said.
Putin has already indicated some of his plans in his speeches and interviews, in which he basically stuck to continuing the war in Ukraine.
In this regard, Angela Stent, author of the book “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest,” and a senior advisor at the Washington-based United States Institute of Peace, says that in the Kremlin’s view, the elections revolve solely around the issue: “We are in a national war and he is the leader of the nation in this.” The existential struggle to preserve the country’s role in the world and preserve the country’s territorial integrity.”
Observers expect the Russian leader to soon launch another wave of arrests and detentions at home, new laws to stifle dissent and raise taxes on the rich, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“What we have seen recently is an increase in the activity of the Russian intelligence and security services, which is extremely aggressive,” said Andrei Soldatov, a senior fellow at the Center for European Studies, based in Washington, DC. “It reflects the paranoia that the regime suffers from even before the elections.”
Soldatov added: “Since political stability is at stake, everything is justified, including the killing of political opponents.” [و] Attacks abroad.
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