Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements on Friday that the upcoming municipal elections will be his last as head of the Justice and Development Party, in the first official indication that he is leaving power after the end of his current term, raised many questions about the messages it carries, and who are the most prominent candidates to succeed him.
Turkish analysts considered that Erdogan’s statements were primarily due to the fact that, according to the constitution, “he will not be able to run for the next presidential elections after 4 years,” in addition to the fact that if he decided to run again at the end of the presidential term of his next successor, he might then begin a term at the age of 80, and therefore “age does not apply.” Nor does the Constitution allow it.”
It is reported that the Turkish President won a new 5-year presidential term, after his victory over his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, last May, when he won 52.15 percent of the votes.
“the end”
On Friday, Erdogan said in front of a crowd of the Turkish Youth Foundation that the municipal elections scheduled for the end of this month will be his “last.”
He continued: “I continue to work without stopping. We run without breathing because for me this is the end. With the authority granted to me by law, these elections are my last elections.”
He added: “But the result will be a blessing for my brothers who will come after me. There will be a transfer of confidence,” according to Agence France-Presse.
For the first time.. Erdogan talks about leaving power
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke on Friday for the first time about leaving power, stressing that the municipal elections scheduled for March 31 would be his “last.”
The Justice and Development Party seeks to regain the municipality of Istanbul, the country’s economic capital, from the hands of the opposition that won it in 2019. It is a city that means a lot to Erdogan, as he and his party’s political career began in the 1990s, when he was its mayor.
Turkish political analyst, Bekir Atagan, said that Erdogan’s statements come “in the context of the electoral battle in Istanbul, and in response to the opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu.”
He confirmed in statements to Al-Hurra that the Turkish president “wanted to deliver a message to voters, especially in Istanbul, that whoever wants to serve the municipality should be elected and not whoever wants it as a step for the future, that is, the opposition candidate who intends to run for president in the upcoming elections.”
Age and constitution
The term of Erdogan, who was born in February 1954, will end after 4 years, specifically in 2028, when he will be 74 years old.
The Turkish Constitution allows a person to run for only two consecutive presidential terms, each lasting 5 years. Thus, Erdogan cannot run until 2033, when he will have reached 79 years of age.
Turkish political researcher Hisham Junay said regarding Erdogan’s statement: “Given his age, there is a high probability that this will be the last election he will run in.”
He continued in his interview with Al-Hurra website: “I expect that he has health symptoms that prevent him from continuing for another electoral cycle, in addition to the fact that the constitution does not entitle him to run again, and it is natural for him to try to ensure confidence from the people one last time, and perhaps he expects this method to succeed before the municipal elections.” .
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The Turkish President suffered from a health illness during his election campaign last April, and then the Minister of Health, Fakhr al-Din Koca, announced that he had suffered from inflammation of the stomach and intestines.
At that time, the health of the Turkish President was the most widely discussed issue in Turkey, after he cut short a television interview that was being broadcast live, and said that he felt unwell due to a stomach disorder.
Without mentioning any sources, the Chinese state television channel CGTN claimed, last April, that Erdogan had suffered a heart attack. The Turkish presidency quickly denied the news, while the Chinese channel returned to publishing a clarifying news story denying what it had said first.
On October 29, 2021, a video clip of Erdogan walking with difficulty spread on social media, but the Turkish presidency quickly published a counter recording that showed him playing with a basketball.
The Turkish analyst, Yusuf Katiboglu, in his interview with Al-Hurra website, also confirmed the idea of Erdogan’s inability to run for another term in the upcoming elections because of the constitution, but he pointed out that the Turkish president “knows this and stated in private meetings that he will not seek to change the law, and will leave the matter to whomever.” He will succeed him in the presidential elections.
Last October, during a speech before Parliament, Erdogan addressed “the necessity of getting rid of the legacy of coups,” and said: “Every Turkish citizen will find himself within the new constitution that we aspire to draft.”
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However, the insistence of the government and the ruling party (Justice and Development) on the need to begin “drafting and drawing up the new constitution” faces a opposing position on the other side, as the opposition parties refuse to go ahead with the step, and criticize it for several considerations, including that the government “does not abide by the current constitution in the first place,” in addition to Fears that all the talk is for “electoral purposes.”
Since the Justice and Development Party came to power, its leaders have been stressing the necessity of changing the military constitution (1982 Constitution) and working on radical amendments to it.
Several amendments were previously made to it over several periods of time, most notably in 2007 and 2010, leading to the major referendum on changing the system of government from parliamentary to presidential in 2017, which also sparked widespread controversy in the country and the opposition expressed its rejection of it.
For his part, Atagan stressed that “neither age nor the constitution” would allow another candidacy for Erdogan. He told Al-Hurra: “It is almost impossible at this age for the committee (the medical committee responsible for conducting examinations of candidates) to agree to allow him to run.”
Possible successor?
With these statements, names spread on the horizon to succeed Erdogan, whether in the presidency or in the leadership of his Justice and Development Party, according to analysts that Al-Hurra spoke to, but they stressed that politics in Turkey are “changing,” considering that “during the remaining four years of Erdogan, something could happen.” a lot”.
Atacan said that there are names from the party and outside it, “but the most prominent candidate for the Justice and Development Party is the current Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and there is also former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.”
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In turn, Gunay also confirmed that Fidan is among the strongly nominated names, along with former Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu. There is also Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Ozdemir Bayraktar, the politician, businessman, and owner of the company that manufactures Turkish “Bayraktar” marches.
Researcher Gunay pointed out to Al-Hurra that among the names that some are putting forward is the son of Turkish President Bilal Erdogan, but he explained: “I rule that out due to controls and factors that I do not think can be implemented within 4 years.”
He added: “In the end, the names are many, and Turkish policy is subject to changes at any moment, and I believe that the presidential term is indeed Erdogan’s last.”
Katiboglu pointed out that Erdogan’s statements indicate that he will also relinquish the leadership of the party after 5 years. He told Al-Hurra: “It will be his last municipal elections, indicating that the leadership of the party will pass to his successor or whoever will assume the leadership of the party after him.”
Regarding potential candidates to succeed Erdogan, he also referred to Fidan. He said: “Erdogan worked for 40 years in the political field at all its stages, and he has the right to get off the train.”
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