The Gaza War, Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and the Iranian file. Several files will be on Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda after his re-election as president.
Political analysts, Ahmed Al-Sayed Ahmed and Hussein Haridi, agreed in statements to Al-Hurra website that Trump’s re-election to a second presidential term will have important repercussions on the Middle East.
Ahmed explains that Trump had referred to the idea of “peace through strength” during his election campaign and promised Arabs and Muslims to stop the war if he returned to the White House.
Ahmed believes that Trump’s predecessor, Democratic President Joe Biden, was not influential enough in confronting the Israeli Prime Minister, with regard to pressuring him to stop the war in Gaza, while Trump will have more influence on him, and may respond to his demands.
The analyst also points out that Trump is a businessman who attaches great importance to enhancing the economic situation and job opportunities through stability in the Middle East and enhancing cooperation in the region, especially with the Gulf countries, and believes that it is not possible to bring about development and develop relations amidst these wars, so “it is important to cool the level of heat.” In Gaza and Lebanon.
Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister, Ambassador Hussein Haridi, agrees that Trump will be able to make Netanyahu more cooperative with the United States in order to stop the war on Gaza and Lebanon.
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Haridi points out that Netanyahu was always betting on the possibilities of Trump returning to the White House, and this is also the case in Egypt, where the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s congratulatory message on Trump’s return indicates “great joy,” which gives Trump an opportunity to push Netanyahu to be more flexible regarding… The issue of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
The Egyptian President was the first among Arab leaders to congratulate Trump. In a post on his official Facebook page, Sisi expressed his aspiration “to establish peace, maintain regional peace and stability, and strengthen strategic partnership relations between Egypt, the United States, and their people.”
Al-Sisi stressed that the two countries have always provided “a model of cooperation and have succeeded together in achieving the common interests of the two countries, which is what we look forward to continuing in these delicate circumstances that the world is going through.”
Haridi believes that Trump’s return may lead to an end to the war not only in Gaza but also in Ukraine, which may make Ukrainian leaders who depend on unlimited American support reconsider their calculations. The same may apply to Netanyahu, who will work to end the war.
Haridi clarifies that Trump’s clear interest and concern for his relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries can be used to put pressure on Netanyahu, and the pressure here is not intended to “stop aid or a public rebuke, but rather a quid pro quo,” that is, pushing Netanyahu to take certain measures in exchange for American guarantees to him of Saudi normalization. Haridi believes that Netanyahu would be open to listening to Trump on this matter.
Haridi believes that the biggest obstacle will be the so-called “Deal of the Century”It is a supposed vision of peace in the Middle East put forward during Trump’s first term.
Trump, the US president at the time, had described the plan, which was managed by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner and his advisor in the White House at the time, as “the deal of the century.”
Although the general framework of the plan was not revealed precisely, some reports indicated the cancellation of the idea of the two-state solution, which represented the accepted American and international formula for establishing an independent state for the Palestinians alongside Israel in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.
The plan proposed the capital of the Palestinian state, in “parts of East Jerusalem,” and that its territories be connected thanks to a “modern and efficient” transportation network, including a high-speed train linking the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Haridi believes that Trump will move forward with the Abraham Accords, “but he does not know the fate of the deal of the century. Will he revive it? Will he modify it? Or propose a new plan?”
Ahmed also expects a rapprochement between Trump and the Arab countries, as happened during his first term, and “rearranging the cards in the region to achieve his approach to normalization, cooperation, and enhancing the economy and job opportunities between countries.”
He also believes that the deal of the century “was born dead because it was not based on strong foundations, ignored the rights of the Palestinian people, and abolished the two-state solution,” which is the only solution that he believes the countries of the region will accept.
Regarding the Iranian file, Ahmed believes that he will exert pressure on Iran, indicating that he believes that Biden and Iran are responsible for the continuation of the war, because the Biden administration released the funds that helped the Iranian regime finance the armed groups, which helped Hamas launch the October 7 attack. On Israel.
As for relations with Egypt, he says that they are “strategic and not affected by the change in the American president, but they will be warmer after they were lukewarm during the Biden era.”
He added: “The relationship will be warm at the level of political discourse, but the military and economic strategy does not change much with the change of presidents.”
The former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister, Haridi, believes that relations with Egypt “will return to normal: relations between two countries based on mutual respect and mutual interests that existed in previous eras.”
He points out that since 2014 (since Sisi took power), relations have been tense, and had it not been for the Gaza war and Egyptian mediation efforts, the stalemate would have continued.
Haridi believes that Trump’s victory “will put an end to the Obama era in American politics, which began since his famous speech in 2009 before Cairo University, which linked issues of democracy and human rights to Washington’s relations with specific countries.”
He believes that Obama’s policy “harmed the chances of consolidating democracy and human rights” in the Arab world. It would have been better to open economic growth opportunities to these countries, and it would have forced these societies to open up politically, of course.
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