Current Super Bowl odds: 9.9%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Starting in Week 11, Kyle Hamilton has played at least 19 snaps at free safety in every Ravens game and at least 25 snaps in all but two games according to PFF. In that same span, the Ravens rank first in both EPA per play against the pass and defensive pass success rate. That’s a huge jump from where they were prior — 28th in EPA per play against the pass, 21st in defensive pass success rate — when Hamilton wasn’t playing nearly as much free safety.
Sure, some of their gains have to do with the low quality of opponents they’ve faced, but there is no doubt the Ravens diagnosed a problem on their defense and righted the ship. Considering the state of their elite offense, an average defense would go a long way, and it’s safe to say they’re better than average right now.
Why they won’t
The postseason woes continue for quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Jackson’s career touchdown per attempt percentage is 6.4%. He’s currently leading the NFL this season at 8.6%. That metric in six career playoff games is just 3.1%. His interception rate goes from 1.9% in the regular season to 3.1% in the playoffs. His completion percentage drops eight percentage points. No matter how you cut it, the Ravens haven’t been able to figure out the passing offense in Jackson’s short playoff career. If that trend continues, they won’t have enough firepower to overcome potential road trips to Buffalo and Kansas City.
First appeared on www.nytimes.com