The entry of armed opposition factions into the city of Aleppo is described by observers and experts as “the most exciting military maneuver in the entire Syrian civil war.” While uncertainty still surrounds what is behind the rapid advance of fighters on the ground, questions are being raised about the secret behind the “coldness” of the Russian position for the third day on the straight.
When the Syrian regime extended full control over the city in 2016, there were no limits to the support that Russia provided to it militarily and intelligence. Not only that, Iran has placed many local and foreign militias on the ground, significantly changing the reality of the field.
Currently, as the attack by the armed opposition factions enters its fourth day, the position taken by Russia appears different compared to what it has followed over the past years, whether at the level of the city of Aleppo and its countryside in particular, or the rest of the Syrian governorates, parts of which were controlled by the opposition.
The Russian Kremlin said in its first statement on the armed factions’ military operation, on Friday, that “the situation in Aleppo is an infringement on Syria’s sovereignty, and that the Russian Federation supports the restoration of order in the region.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “With regard to the situation around Aleppo, this is of course an infringement on Syria’s sovereignty in this region, and we call on the Syrian authorities to quickly restore order in this region and restore constitutional order.”
Facts about the armed factions’ attack on Aleppo and its regional repercussions
Over the past few hours, factions of the armed opposition in northern Syria have entered several neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo, which is considered the second largest Syrian city and has been described as the country’s economic capital for decades.
Peskov also stressed the need to advance the path of normalization between Ankara and Damascus, which has reached a dead end, for reasons related to the Syrian regime’s refusal to enter the dialogue process without obtaining guarantees that include the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian warplanes carried out several air strikes on civilian and military sites in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside during the past hours, but they did not reach the level of major escalation that they were when the opposition factions were launching similar attacks in the past.
Journalists in northwestern Syria also observed different behavior of Russian warplanes from that which existed in previous years, whether when the armed factions were launching military action or moving to their positions on the fronts.
What are the echoes in Moscow?
Russian political researcher, Dmitry Bregea, believes that the “coldness” of the Russian position regarding the attack taking place in Aleppo and its countryside is “already clear,” and refers to “the political crisis taking place in Syria, which Moscow has tried and is trying to solve by implementing a political solution.”
Speaking to the Al-Hurra website, he said: “Russia stood with Assad and still supports him, but it understands that the current economic situation makes all matters difficult and that the Syrian forces are able to control and secure all areas.”
What is striking about the ongoing factional attack, which has entered its fourth day, is that the opposition factions have made rapid progress at the expense of the Syrian regime forces inside the city of Aleppo and in its western and southern countryside.
Breja believes that “the accelerating military fall indicates the weakness of the defense lines of the Syrian and government forces,” in addition to “weak intelligence performance.”
Russia knew in advance about the preparations related to the attack, and even sent messages to the political and military decision-making circles in Damascus, but the latter took any measures to secure the areas, according to the Russian researcher.
He also explains that the rapid advance of the armed factions “indicates that the status quo will change in the region.”
What are the limits of Russian intervention?
For his part, Moscow-based political analyst Rami Al-Shaer adds, “Russian aviation cannot carry out any operations against the Syrian people. Russia is fully aware that the events taking place today in northern Syria, especially in Aleppo, are the result of procrastination by the regime in Damascus.”
This procrastination is linked to “the response to begin the process of peaceful transition to a new regime that is compatible with the aspirations of all ethnic and sectarian components of the Syrian people,” according to Al-Shaer.
Speaking to Al-Hurra website, he said: “Russia can only intervene against the activities of terrorist organizations that are internationally recognized as terrorist organizations, but today’s events cannot be classified as terrorist activities.”
“Procrastination by the regime in Damascus to start dialogue with Turkey, and responding to Turkish President Erdogan’s initiative to hold a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad has resulted in this current deterioration of the situation, which may extend beyond that.”
Al-Shaer believes that “the only solution to get out of this catastrophe is the immediate start of the Syrian-Syrian dialogue in order to begin the transition to a new ruling system in Syria.”
The Kremlin described the Aleppo attack as “an attack on Syria’s sovereignty.” This description implicitly accuses external parties of supporting the attack, according to international relations researcher Mahmoud Alloush.
Alloush told Al-Hurra website, “The Aleppo attack greatly worries the Russians because it may lead to the regime losing an important city in the conflict, such as Aleppo, and such a loss may lead to a complete reshaping of the Syrian conflict.”
“Russia is a close ally of Assad, and any threat to the gains he has made in the war is a threat to the Russian presence in Syria,” according to the researcher.
He continues: “The Russians are already involved in the military operations carried out by the regime in the region to stop the advance of the opposition.”
Three possibilities
In the latest developments on the ground, factions of the armed opposition in northern Syria have entered, during the past hours, several neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo, which is considered the second largest Syrian city and has been described as the economic capital of the country for decades.
The neighborhoods that the factions entered are: Al-Hamdaniya, New Aleppo, 3000 Apartments, Al-Jamiliyah, and Salah al-Din, according to two media sources who spoke to the Al-Hurra website, and a report published by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The entry of the factions came after an attack they launched two days ago, and first targeted villages and towns located in the western countryside of Aleppo, as well as its southern countryside.
Regarding the nature of the Russian response, the Russian political researcher, Brija, reviews 3 possibilities. The first is that Moscow will reach an understanding with Türkiye to stop what is happening.
The Syrian Aleppo attack.. What does it mean for Iran?
The areas targeted by the opposition factions’ attack in the countryside of Aleppo have been known for years as being of great importance to Iran militarily, which was reflected in the years prior to 2020 when the Revolutionary Guards placed many militias there on the ground or in the incident that resulted in the death of… A senior general named Keomars Burhashmi.
The second possibility goes towards “a broad operation, but Türkiye will reject it in Idlib, Aleppo and its countryside, and this will lead to great destruction,” according to Breja.
He adds that the third possibility lies in “reaching understandings not only with Turkey, but also with the United States of America to implement the political solution in Syria and find solutions to the Syrian crisis and prevent international institutions from collapsing completely in the coming months or years.”
For his part, researcher Alloush explains, “The relations between Moscow and Damascus are a strategic alliance relationship. Some discrepancies may appear from time to time, but they do not weaken this strategic alliance.”
Ultimately, it is in Russia’s interest for the regime to maintain its grip on the city of Aleppo and tighten the noose on the opposition in the northwest of the country, according to Alloush.
These developments may create an additional incentive for Russia to make a greater effort to advance the Turkish-Syrian normalization project because it is the only guarantee to reduce the risks of the collapse of the existing military status quo in northern Syria, according to what the researcher in international relations believes.
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