Two experts agreed that Israel’s bombing of Tehran’s consulate in Syria aimed to involve Washington in a regional war if it responded. IranIt is likely that Tehran’s response will be direct and not through its allies.
Israel expectsUnited State A possible Iranian response after the assassination of the leader of the Revolutionary Guard Muhammad Reza Zahedi Meanwhile, Tehran said that an Israeli bombing targeted its consulate building in Damascus in early April.
And communicate Israel Building what resembles a state of panic, through what it says are preparations to respond to a major attack, which Iran is likely to launch against it at any time, according to statements by its officials.
During his participation in the program “Gaza… What Next?”, Dr. Hassan Ayoub, Professor of Political Science at An-Najah National University, believes that this situation that Israel is working to build comes as a continuation of the approach of beating the drums of war practiced by its Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu Regarding the Iranian file.
He explained that this dates back to 2015, when the administration of the former US President Barack Obama On signature 5+1 agreement At that time, Netanyahu tried by all means to pressure it not to sign it, as the Obama administration believed that the best approach to dealing with the Iran issue was diplomacy, while Israel insisted on pressure and the use of force if necessary.
Direct reply
The political science professor expects Iran to respond directly in the coming days, but at the same time he points out the receipt of news indicating Tehran’s readiness to reach an understanding with the American administration through Omani mediators, not to respond if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Gaza Strip.
However, according to Ayoub, there is a major problem: the success of the Israeli government in preoccupying the American administration in seeking to extinguish the crises it creates, such as the assassination of Iranian officials and before that the assassination of foreign aid workers, so that Washington’s efforts to move to the post-war phase in Gaza do not succeed.
He believes that successive American administrations continue to make the same mistake when dealing with crises in the Middle East, as they adopt the approach of managing the conflict and not resolving it, while the Israeli government pushes matters to a broad escalation in the service of its specific regional strategy.
In this context, Dr. Hassan Ayoub believes that Israel’s undeclared strategy is to use the aggression against the Gaza Strip in order to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians in a final way, leading to the imposition of a settlement reality in the West Bank and the displacement of the people of the Gaza Strip or emptying part of it.
He adds that this will not happen unless Israel is able to ignite a regional confrontation, to which no one knows the extent to which it can reach. Therefore, the American administration is hesitant and afraid of getting involved in it, while the Netanyahu government seeks to involve it in any way in that confrontation.
Repeat error
The political science professor believes that the American administration has not learned from its previous experiences, which is reflected in its rush to declare its support for Israel in any confrontation with Iran, while it is no secret that Netanyahu’s greatest concern is to thwart any possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
Through this crisis, Iran seeks to restart the negotiating wheel on its nuclear file, which was stalled and ignored by the current American administration, according to Ayoub, who believes that the messages exchanged between the Iranian and American sides include the possibility of Washington pressuring Israel not to respond to Iran’s response if it was calculated.
Dr. Hassan Ayoub believes that if Iran responds, this will be a major challenge on its part that could open the door to a major regional confrontation, while failure to respond will lead to it falling into greater trouble, as this reflects Israel’s success in achieving its goal of practicing the policy of brinkmanship, and therefore Iran is forced to respond at its discretion.
In turn, Brigadier General Muhammad Abbas, a military and strategic expert, believes that Israel’s excessive expression of concern regarding Iran’s expected response is aimed at testing the United States’ position on the crisis, which was heard by the American administration, which was quick to confirm that it would stand by Israel in the event of a confrontation with Iran. .
However, he pointed out that Washington did not talk about participating in operations against Iran, suggesting that Tehran would respond directly in the coming days, but he believes that talk about the nature of this response is mere speculation.
The military expert agrees with Dr. Hassan Ayoub that through this escalation, Netanyahu aims to implicate the United States in its repercussions, but he believes that the scale of American intervention cannot be expected, because Washington does not see an interest in entering into a wide regional conflict in the region.
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