Warning of the threat posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine to Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made strong statements, in which he considered that “war is no longer a concept of the past,” and that for the first time since the end of World War II, the Old Continent has entered a “pre-war era.” “.
Tusk said in an interview on Friday with the “LENA” media network, which includes the largest alliance of European newspapers, “War is no longer a concept from the past. It is a reality, and it began more than two years ago. The most worrying thing currently is that any scenario is possible to happen. We have been witnessing a situation like this since 1945.”
The Polish official’s warnings raise questions about the possibilities of realizing the scenario of the conflict erupting in Ukraine expanding to neighboring countries, especially in light of the European movements and statements issued by European leaders and officials recently, which come in the face of data that reveal Russian field superiority.
danger “standing”
An expert in European affairs, Mohamed Rajai Barakat, confirms that the possibility of the unprecedented crisis between the European countries affiliated with NATO and Russia developing into a direct confrontation “exists,” especially since the current tensions are unprecedented since the period of World War II.
Barakat added, in a statement to Al-Hurra website, that the Ukrainian losses in battles against the Russians make it impossible to hold negotiations despite Western officials such as Macron expressing their desire to sit down to negotiate and discuss with Putin, noting that the recent developments reflect that there is a “dangerous development towards the outbreak of a crisis.” Deeper and perhaps a regional war.”
For his part, Russian political analyst, Dimitri Breguet, believes that the statement is “serious and has evidence on the ground,” indicating that Russian strategies related to the war will not depend on the four annexed provinces, and new regions will be annexed, such as Odessa, and this may escalate the situation. “.
On the second level, in a statement to Al-Hurra website, Briguet draws attention to the mutual threats between Russia and the West, which open the door to “the possibility of a direct collision.”
The Polish official said in his statements, “I know it seems devastating, especially for the younger generation, but we have to get used to the fact that a new era has begun: the pre-war era. I am not exaggerating. It is becoming clearer every day.”
Tusk’s statements came days after a Russian missile penetrated Polish airspace during a major attack on Ukraine, which Tusk described as a “worrying incident” and prompted Warsaw to put its forces on high alert.
But as unrest looms, Tusk warned that Europe was not prepared to confront the threat despite its efforts to bolster its defence, adding that if Kiev lost the war “no one” in Europe would feel safe.
Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European leaders and military officials have become increasingly concerned about the possibility of the conflict spreading to other countries on its borders, although Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied that Moscow intends to attack NATO countries.
According to the networkCNNRussia’s war has turned the post-Cold War geopolitical order “upside down,” forcing Europe to take its defense more seriously after decades of declining military budgets, and also pushing countries on Russia’s borders to take tougher measures.
Sweden and Finland recently joined NATO – something that would have been unthinkable until two years ago for the famously neutral Scandinavian countries.
In the Baltic states, Estonia and Lithuania have boosted their defense budgets well beyond NATO’s minimum of 2 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, Moldova, which is located on the border with Ukraine and has long been vulnerable to Russian interference, is seeking to join the European Union bloc.
“Escalation messages”
On the other hand, the trio of France, Germany and Poland, the so-called “Weimar Triangle” alliance, was leading the continent’s efforts to rearm and protect itself against Russian aggression.
The leaders of Germany, France, and Poland met in Berlin in the middle of this month to discuss support for Ukraine and try to coordinate, after months of disagreements on basic points regarding the war in Ukraine and other issues.
During this summit, the three European powers tried to reactivate coordination after tense relations under the previous nationalist government in Poland. They also sought to send a signal of unity, at a time when Kiev was facing a shortage of military resources, and while Putin was preparing to be elected for a new six-year term in the Kremlin. .
In this context, European affairs expert, Barakat, says that the European escalation and continued military support for Ukraine reveals that things are likely to move toward a direct confrontation, especially in the event of sending fighter planes to Ukraine, which Moscow considers to be actual NATO participation in the war.
In his analysis, Barakat links the statements made by the European official, and the statements of the Secretary-General of NATO, in which he repeatedly pointed out that “Russia should not triumph and win the war, in addition to the statements of the European Foreign Ministry official, Josep Borrell, and other presidents and leaders of Western countries that go in the direction same”.
For his part, Dmitry Breguet believes that the recent European moves indicate the risks of the crisis escalating to more tense levels, which may ultimately lead to a military conflict, in light of the mutual threats between Russia and the West, in addition to the military and political rhetoric that the two sides exchange, which… It makes the warnings issued by the Polish authorities more serious.
However, Brigier says, we must remember that these statements may also be exploited for political purposes, whether that is to strengthen regional alliances or to increase pressure on the international community to take more assertive action against Russia’s potential threats.
Therefore, these statements could have “propaganda dimensions,” according to the spokesman, who also points out that the current danger related to tensions between Russia and the West “already justifies the serious warnings made by the Polish Prime Minister.”
“War propaganda”
In a related context, Lakhdar Furat, a researcher specializing in European affairs, believes that the recent statements from both sides “fall within the propaganda of war” and prepare Western public opinion for the possibility of NATO countries intervening to support Ukraine or at least to “freeze the conflict.”
Furat added in a statement to Al-Hurra website that a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO countries would be “very dangerous for global security,” as it would not be the same as in the two previous world wars, given current weapons technology and also the devastating nuclear threats, which do not… It leaves both sides with no opportunity to open the door to direct conflict.
Furat confirms that the recent statements remain part of what is called “warming up public opinion and war propaganda,” and he does not rule out that they are “an invitation to sit at the negotiating table to find a solution to this crisis,” especially in light of other statements in which a senior NATO official said that the alliance would not intervene unless One of its countries was targeted, under the Joint Defense Agreement.
The same spokesman explains that the Polish Prime Minister’s statements carry “different goals” and may also be a pressure card to “provide more support,” especially since they coincide with the Ukrainian President’s talk about delayed support and the possibility of his forces retreating.
Zelensky said in an interview published on Friday that if Ukraine does not receive the military aid promised by the United States and is hampered by disagreements in Congress, its forces will have to retreat “in small steps.”
The support Ukraine desperately needs has been stuck in Congress since last year, causing a shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines.
The Republican-led House of Representatives is blocking $60 billion in aid to Ukraine amid pressure from Donald Trump over the way President Joe Biden is managing the southern US border.
The Ukrainian president added to the Washington Post, “If American support does not exist, it means that we do not have air defenses, Patriot missiles, electronic warfare jamming devices, or 155-millimeter artillery rounds.”
He continued, “This means that we will retreat, we will retreat, one step after another, in small steps.” He continued, “We are trying to find some way not to retreat.”
While US President Joe Biden has remained steadfast in his support for Ukraine, former President Donald Trump said last month that if re-elected in November, he would encourage Russia to do “whatever they want” to any NATO member that does not adhere to the alliance’s defense spending guidelines.
Commenting on the two different positions, Tusk said: “Our mission is to strengthen transatlantic relations, regardless of who the American president will be.”
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